Rise and Decline of Bike Share

Five Years Ago, Bike Share and Scooter Rental were Neck and Neck. Now Scooters FAR Outpace Bike Share

This is a fable for our times. It was just a bit more than five years ago that bike share programs really go going. I will use history from the Seattle Bike Blog (SBB) as illustrative of bike share.

The first SBB post on the subject was made on May 5, 2014. By August 25, 2014, the headline: 

"It’s really happening. Today, you can buy a membership for a Seattle public bike share system."

 Somewhat grumpily, I forecast, on July 29, 2014:

"They’ll later use our tax dollars to subsidize the bike share system when it fails due to their policies. Perhaps they’ll emulate NYC in outlawing large soft drinks and in arresting cyclists for imagined offenses."

 At this point, the system was run by Pronto, a subsidiary of Alta Planning. It used fixed bike stations and tried to work around the Seattle helmet laws in order to draw in casual riders who didn't happen to bring their own helmets along on the chance they might want to rent a bike. Before too long, this became a drain, leading them to charge for helmet rentals. On May 11, 2015, SBB reported:

"If you buy a 24-hour or three-day pass to use Pronto Cycle Share, you will now have to pay an extra $2 to check out a helmet."

It also became clear that the service area with bike stations was pretty limited, and, as a result, on June 8, 2015, SBB reported:

"...the biggest problem with Pronto is that the service area is simply too small to meet most people’s needs. And under the current business model, the system would expand slowly over time as more private sponsorship investments or city budget line items lead the way. It’s a plan that creates solid benefits for relatively little public investment, but it’s not a plan that can truly revolutionize transportation and low-income access to bicycling in Seattle. 

"That’s why the city has put together a visionary plan for a massive, fast expansion of Pronto that would increase the service area from five square miles to 42 square miles..."

Bike share was growing by leaps and bounds! However, cracks were beginning to appear. While Seattle proposed a massive expenditure to dramatically increase the size of Pronto, and (move in to management of Pronto as well), the Feds said "nope." By October 27, 2015, SBB reported:

"...the city still intends to move forward with an expansion. Mayor Ed Murray’s proposed 2016 budget includes $5 million for expanding Pronto. If that funding is approved by the City Council, the path forward really hinges on whether the city focuses on expanding the station area or on electric bike technology."

Scooters - Cheaper Than Ebikes, Faster than Pedal Bikes

Electric bikes - well that IS a new development indeed. Things went down a bit further, when, on February 4, 2016, the SBB post headline read:

"Pronto needs city buyout before end of March, how did we get here?"

And things continued downhill for the Pronto, station-based bike share. By October 10, 2016, SBB reported:

"Though it’s not final, Seattle has indicated that it intends to select a young Quebec-based company to launch an all-new electric-assist bike share system. 

"That means both Motivate, the current Pronto Cycle Share operator, and the existing Pronto equipment are out if the deal goes through. The city is now negotiating directly with Quebec-based Bewegen to finalize a deal."

Now, bikes were only a part of the solution if they were electric assist, though bike stations were still the fundamental backbone of the system. By October 20, 2016, the SBB headline read:

"Council faces a choice: Kill Pronto now or make lemonade out of the existing stations?"

There it was, bike share, at least if it wasn't "electric" was going away - and fast. In January, on the 13th, SBB headlined the final resolution:

"Mayor Ed Murray has scrapped his bike share expansion plan, ending the city’s efforts to create a new public e-assist bike system to replace the doomed Pronto system set to shut down March 31. This officially ends a frustrating era..."

And so it was. Bike share was dead in Seattle. A victim of inflexible docking stations, mandatory helmet laws, and bureaucratic meddling, just to mention three factors. BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!

On July 19th, 2017, SBB reported on the beginning of dockless bike share. Spin and LimeBike started operation and exceeded the old Pronto system ridership in their first week. They would have done better, but old city rules were still in place that presumed an "ease into the water" approach. The report of the death of bike share was greatly exaggerated. By December 15, 2017, SBB headlined:

"Bike share pilot’s daily ridership blows past Pronto’s lifetime totals, rivals both streetcars combined."

and, in that article, stated:

"...bike share services are already rivaling two streetcar lines that cost about $190 million to build is pretty incredible. Free-floating bike share services have cost the City of Seattle almost nothing. In fact, these companies pay the city permit fees. And at $1/ride, bike share is the cheapest way to get around other than walking or owning your own (not-high-end) bicycle. That’s far, far cheaper than other private mobility services, like car share, taxis and app taxis."

However, this was about the peak for bike share. Instead, the future looked like e bikes and scooters. On August 19, 2018, SBB reviewed the timeline. Notably:

"2018: Lime introduces 15¢ per minute e-bikes, Spin leaves town as it transitions to scooters and ofo leaves town as their China-based business begins imploding. Bike ridership in Seattle increases significantly, smashing bike counter records all over town. Uber-owned Jump joins Lime at the end of the year as the $1 pedal bikes disappear."

Lime Rental Scooter

Scooters are Getting Fancier

Which brings me up to the present. Recently, in downtown Dallas, I noticed scooters ALL OVER THE PLACE. All of them were electrically powered. There was not a single "regular" bike to be had. Things didn't look a whole lot different in Seattle. The story continues to evolve. As with bikes, it appears that many of the people who rent these electric scooters do not understand that they are really renting a small motorcycle and zooming along sidewalks and against traffic is really NOT a good idea. Perhaps our driver licensing system should start by ensuring that  prospective motorists understand that the rules of the road apply to ALL that use wheeled things on public roadways (sidewalks are also part of those roadways) and require people to demonstrate they can do so with scooters and bikes before they move up to more powerful vehicles.

But I digress. Over on SBB, they are arguing that the best thing to do is bring back the dock system, but spend a LOT more money and make the bikes cheap to rent. Somehow, I think most people want a motorized item that they can simply pick up wherever they happen to be. It's been 30 years since the Soviet Union fell...

After Renting, Many People Scooter Along the Sidewalk